Memorial Day typically represents a turning point in the year for most people. According to traditional fashion etiquette, you are now allowed to wear white clothing, shorts, and linen. I've never followed these rules to the letter, but then again I've also been known to order a glass of Cabernet or Pinot Noir with my poisson.
Memorial Day can also represent a turning point in the momentum of the real estate market. Spring & Summer are traditionally the busiest times for real estate sales, as it's easier to market a home in the beauty of the warm seasons than in the dead of winter, people prefer to move when it's warm, and the end of the school semester frees up time for people to look for homes and concentrate on real estate.
What's the picture in Northern Virginia today, the day after Memorial Day?
(the traditional start of the Summer season, although the official 1st day of Summer according to the calendar is not until June 20th)?
INVENTORY IS UP!
Back on New Year's Day -- January 1, 2008, there were 14,816 homes on the market combining the inventories of Alexandria, Arlington County, Fairfax County, Falls Church, Loudoun County, and Prince William County.
Today, there are an additional 2,468 homes available!
Here's a breakdown of homes for sale by jurisdiction:
ALEXANDRIA CITY 828 homes for sale
ARLINGTON COUNTY 936 homes for sale
FAIRFAX COUNTY 7,425 homes for sale
FALLS CHURCH CITY 55 homes for sale
LOUDOUN COUNTY 3,064 homes for sale
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY 4,976 homes for sale
An important factor to examine is absorption rates or how quickly homes are selling in each area. Taking the number of sales for the first 5 months (almost) and dividing by 5 gives us the average monthly sales figures. Then taking the current inventory and dividing by that result provides a picture as to how many months of inventory are on the market. Six months of inventory is considered a balanced market. More than 6 months and it is a buyer's market, less than six months means it is a seller's market.
Here's the stats for each area:
ALEXANDRIA CITY 7.3 months supply
ARLINGTON COUNTY 6.1 months supply
FAIRFAX COUNTY 8.9 months supply
FALLS CHURCH CITY 6.7 months supply
LOUDOUN COUNTY 9.4 months supply
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY 11.1 months supply
This data is important whether you are deciding to sell your home or purchase your next home in Northern Virginia. These numbers represent an overall picture of the region. However, it is crucially important to have the data for each particular area of a county, and even drill down to specific neighborhoods. Real estate is hyperlocal -- this just cannot be emphasized enough.
If you are thinking about buying or selling a home in Northern Virginia, please feel free to contact me for specific information about your area of interest.
Brian Block Northern Virginia Real Estate 703-626-0715
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Brian~
AHA...so..I'm reading your post;...and have a quick question....in a Buyers' Market...and with inventories Up...and with white shoes OK, given the season...what advice do you offer your buying clients?
Brian - A very informative report. The consumer can quickly see how much inventory is available and how long it is taking to sell. I hope this summer will be a busy sales period for us all.
Brian- For the most part, the inventory levels look pretty good. The sales for the area must have been fairly strong in May. Good news.
We have been holding steady at about a year for some time now> I am hopeful the summer market will reduce it further.
WOW more homes to choose from...all the more reason to work with a local expert!
Inventory up, but haven't you noticed a big increase in activity? I'm hoping it's an indication of sales on the horizon. Of course, it will take months to reduce the inventory - maybe even years.
Inventory up since the beginning of the year is a natural part of the cycle here in DC. As to year over year numbers, did you know that NOVA's current inventory is lower than it was in either late may 2006 OR late may 2007? In fact, Summer 2006 will almost certainly be the absolute peak for inventory in this area.
Good post! You offer the stats WITH AN EXPLANATION OF THEIR SIGNIFICANCE. Well done.
Brian - not only the stats and an explanation of their significance but the fact that a specific (hyperlocal ) location may alter those figures drastically. Excellent information for potential clients
Nice post. The capture of data on the first of the year makes a very nice comparison
Brian - Red wine and fish! A kindred spirit!!!