It can be dangerous listening to the Talking Heads.
No, not the "Psycho Killer/Burning Down the House" Talking Heads, but the small "t" small "h" talking heads that make major pronouncements about real estate and the condition of the market, predictions, etc. If you don't know which economist to trust, you can end up having 5 different opinions from 5 different economists, all who believe they know what's going to happen with real estate.
I always believe that it's better for you to listen to someone who's out there in the field every day, "playing in the street", and in the trenches of the day in day out real estate market. Who do you think knows the trends better? An economist who studies "the market," or an agent who watches the market in action and whose clients are participating and making the market every day? No need to e-mail me with your answer -- that was a rhetorical question.
More often than not, the mainstream media sensationalizes the headlines (and they're usually very negative -- doom & gloom).
Nonetheless, here's some positive news headlines today from some of the prognosticators in a BusinessWeek online article (thanks to Tom Royce from The Real Estate Bloggers for pointing these out):
"I would bet even odds that we're at a bottom and that we're going to see improvement in the coming months," said Karl Case, co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and a professor of economics at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts.
"The underlying trend is turning positive," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase
& Co. in New York.
The average household had 177.8 percent of the income needed to purchase a property in January, the highest since a record 184 percent in April 2009, when mortgage rates tumbled to 4.78 percent, according to data from the Realtors' association.
"The underlying trend in home sales is for gradual improvement," Maki of Barclays Capital said.
"While activity will remain at low levels for some time, the housing bust is essentially over."
Make your own judgments about these statements, or better yet contact your local, seasoned, professional REALTOR to discuss the market and make your buying and selling decisions.
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A good Article.
Well. IMO, none of those folks know what they're talking about.
Good post, I am skeptical as well. I have been hearing we are at the bottom many times now.
Brian -- thanks for the "T"alking "H"eads video clip. "I can't seem to face up to the facts." I don't want to seem gloom and doom, and I'm out in the trenches too. But, this may be the eye of the hurricane. But what do I know?
"Lies . . . damn lies . . . and statistics."
~~ Mark Twain.
Hi Brian,
I prefer my crystal ball to the talking heads. lol Everything I hear and read I take with "a grain of salt"
All I know is what I see. I'm seeing multiple bids, mobbed open houses and low inventory. Prices here have rebounded since September 2009. Median prices per square foot have increased 34%. Median price per square foot is now at the same level it was two years ago.
I just found your post on Lenn Harley's re-blog. I'll just let you know what I said on her re-blog... "All truths. But why do I doubt the consumers will listen to this obvious logic? People want to believe the worst. *sigh*"
Brian,
i also came from Lenn.
I would not agree with Brian that agents in the field know better. They usually don't. It is the same as to say that the soldier in the trenches know better than the general. They simply have different horizons. And though you can't win without soldiers, you will not win without the right strategy and right tactical maneuvering
We, agents, cay be too close to the "enemy" to see the bigger picture. Need some distance, and different set of skills
Of course, some have it, some not
I am in the field every day banging my head around, and frankly I don't know. From my perspective, a lot of the current market is spurred by a credit provided by you and me. That is like taking water from one end of the pool and pouring it into the other. When the water dries up, and it will, I wonder if the "market" can sustain itself, or if there is yet more to hit the fan.
All real estate is "hyper-local." Some markets are at or near the bottom; others still have some way to go. We saw the wave of subprime foreclosures in the past, and what they did to the hardest-hit market areas. Nationally, a wave of Alt-A and Option ARM foreclosures is likely this year and next. Until the distress sales are really behind us buyers will see real opportunities and "regular" sellers will face tough price competition. I believe that we'll start to see the market regain solid footing in 2011.
Being in the middle of America, I'm seeing more foreclosures and short sales than ever before. I think we are just catching up with the East and West Coasts. I'm not sure when we'll see sunrise.
Brian Block Northern Virginia and D.C. Real Estate
Hello Brian, I'm inclined to agree with Carla. BUT, I have bought two properties this year, because a good deal is always a good deal and real estate investment has always proven to be profitable for me.
Columbus Ga Homes, Columbus Ga Real Estate, Ft Benning Homes, Columbus Ga Realtors
One sometimes overlooked fact of statistical analysis. Even when the quantity being thrown on the pile each week begins to shrink compared to prior weeks, the pile is still getting bigger. That pile will continue getting bigger for a bit longer before the pile starts to shrink.
Brian: That's great to hear some authorities weighing in on the positive. prices are still dropping here.
The market will improve when employment increases. There are people who want to buy but are afraid of losing their job.